Hope for Gold September and Silver October as Housing Sales Slow in August

The Chinese dub September gold and October silver for the real estate market. The Golden Week national holiday at the start of October is a major promotional period for developers and its the last major sales season ahead of next year's Spring Festival. If developers are behind on their sales targets, this is when they'll pull out all the stops to hit them.

This article in iFeng says we can expect an increase in sales: 楼市政策一再宽松 金九银十成交量增长可期, but it opens on a less optimistic note. Sales are down in August, but this is blamed on developers holding back new properties for the September and October season.

At the same time, continued for many years "outer limit order" appears loose, access conditions for foreign investment in the real estate business has been relaxed, foreign institutions and individuals to purchase restrictions were lifted. If you add 2 to fund two suites down payment policy ground, lower prices three or four lines of urban demand is expected to be driven by some.

Overall easing introduced the background, the August market continues to cool, major cities, the supply chain of transactions fell further expand the city surface. Developers are pouring their efforts in September and October.

CRIC monitoring data show that the supply side, major cities housing supply continued sluggish performance, falling month on month. The first-tier cities fell more obvious, including Beijing, Shanghai with MoM decline of more than 20 percent; and in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, although the MoM supply has increased, but the absolute amount of view, is still relatively low. Second and third tier cities in nearly 7 cities continue to decline, but the supply differentiation further intensified, Ningbo, Nanchang, Wuxi, Changsha, Nanning and other cities supply almost reduced to the level of the beginning, MoM fell in more than 40%; and Hefei, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Kunming and other cities, the supply of substantial growth, particularly in Shenyang, July supply of nearly 1.6 million square meters.

Transaction terms on a sequential basis, also remains in the doldrums. Monitoring data show that the focus of the city commercial housing turnover continue the downward trend in July, and the overall decline has been expanded, but the absolute volume terms this year, still higher than average. The poor performance of first-tier cities, not only the MoM transactions fell across the board, and the overall decline of over 20%. But Beijing, Shanghai July commercial housing turnover area is still more than one million square meters, the market heat is still high. While in the second and third tier cities, nearly 80% saw MoM declines, Changsha, Shenyang, Guiyang, Kunming and other cities decline is particularly evident decline in more than 30%, on the contrary, Hefei, Wuhan, Xiamen and other individual cities, July commercial housing turnover mom still appear contrarian growth.

...LI Qiao-ling chain of home network Institute believes that the downward pressure on the real economy, the stock market decline, the central bank cut interest rates, RRR, plus three ministries jointly fund the down payment to reduce the proportion of loans more confirmed earlier on stimulus to boost the demand for real estate economic speculation, and this is still the introduction of similar instruments in the future may be. The real estate industry is expected this year or even next year will have a more relaxed policy environment.

LI Qiao-ling believes in August, subject to the insufficient supply of new homes, so transactions fall. Transaction level, although lower than in June and July, but still significantly higher than last year. Practical point of view, the market heat has not declined, the project is still to melt faster, the market upward trend intact. As expected the "Golden September and Silver October," the arrival as well as the recent launch of the impact of policies on the market sentiment, the market or will usher in the peak year of supply and demand, prices will show a "steady" situation.

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