2016-01-13

China Still on Track for Crisis

Good read.
FT Alphaville: China “is levering up almost at the same pace as it was 5 years back”
As UBS say, the rising debt has consequences in terms of alternate growth levers and also in terms of China’s deflation/ debt-deflation problem as summed up via the impossible trinity/ FX trilemma — namely that a country cannot simultaneously have an open capital account, independent monetary policy, and a stable tightly managed exchange rate.
The capital account is the most logical one to go, but China was added to the SDR basket last year and it's unclear how the public would react to a major reversal of the reform effort.

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