2016-02-17

Same Old Stimulus Talk in China

On the heels of Li Keqiang saying the government can do more to prop up the economy comes more stimulus rumors. At this point, there's no evidence to suggest this isn't more of the same talk/policy we've seen over the past two years.

Bloomberg: China Ramps Up Rhetoric, Plans New Steps to Juice Up Economy
The nation’s chief planning agency is making more money available to local governments to fund new infrastructure projects, according to people familiar with the matter. Meantime, China’s cabinet has discussed lowering the minimum ratio of provisions that banks must set aside for bad loans, a move that would free up additional cash for lending.
Some people are happy with more talk though:
"After many complaints about poor communications, Chinese officials seem to have gotten the message," Win Thin, the global head of emerging-markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, wrote in a note to clients.
The Chinese government has a different way of sending messages. Nothing has fundamentally changed.
And to ram the message home, the biggest economic planning agencies on Tuesday promised to reduce financing costs as they rein in overcapacity. Throw in a record surge in lending in January and a picture emerges of an administration determined to put a floor under growth.
That has been one of Li Keqiang's top reforms. He was focused on lowering financing costs for SME, and 70% of SMEs Have Seen Financing Costs Rise in 2015.

The major changes to date are the push to reduce overcapacity, which now has moving parts such as the worker stabilization fund, and recognition of rising bad loans. The core message hasn't changed though. No major stimulus, no repeat of 2008, rely on supply side reforms.

iFeng: 央行政策紧急调整的四层深意

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