2016-06-29

Brexit Provides Cover for China?

FT: FT Confidential Research: For Li Keqiang, Brexit is both blessing and curse
FT Confidential Research previously argued that the government had to take action, but the economy’s longstanding problems continue to fester. In Zhejiang province, the traditional heart of China’s private sector economy, we found local government officials and local banks acting in collusion to forestall a brewing, province-wide debt problem.
This has been going on since at least 2014: Rumored Mass Death of Companies in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou If Banks Collect on Debts; Government Tells Banks to Sit Tight or Leave
Earlier this month: How to Deal With Debt: Extend and Pretend

As for Brexit:
Temptation to bask in any Brexit-linked schadenfreude is tempered by the fact that prolonged uncertainty means volatile global markets and weaker global growth, and China will not be spared. The government’s newfound resolve to focus on supply-side reform and break the economy’s debt addiction will be sorely tested as the global environment is again destabilised.
Brexit is a sideshow to the global economy. Had Britain stayed, it would not have changed any targets, only perhaps the timing. The best it offers China is an excuse, to get some depreciation out of the way without taking blame for any fallout.

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