Brexit Toss Up

Going by the history of every meaningful vote going the way of pro-EU forces, one would expect a toss up in the polls to favor Remain.
Given the voter enthusiasm on each side, a statistical dead heat would seem to favor Leave.
Either way, Britain is unlikely to actually leave until 2019: A vote 26 years in the making
My guess is that Brexit wouldn't come into effect formally until July 2019, to coincide with the appointment of a new European Parliament and Commission.

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